29 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1674
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1618
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Huk
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H58-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.