29 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1674
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
OK
🇨🇿Oleksandr Kolisnyk
ELO 1647
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolisnyk
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H12-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.