29 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1544
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tomica
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1570
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chalupa🌟Tomica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (18)
Fair odds · Tomica
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.