29 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1612
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sebera
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1555
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (127)
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.