29 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1621
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sychra
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1555
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (127)
Fair odds · Sychra
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+66
H2H16-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.