29 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1555
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Louda
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1591
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (127)
Fair odds · Louda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H48-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.