29 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1393
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Didi
JD
🇨🇿Julius Didi
ELO 1462
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Didi
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+69
H2H9-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.