30 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Plachy
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Plachy
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1476
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Trefny stays under total as underdog 79% (19)
Fair odds · Plachy
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+78
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.