29 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇨🇿Vaclav Kosar
ELO 1481
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kosar
JF
🇨🇿Jan Framberk
ELO 1450
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Framberk stays under total as underdog 62% (50)
Fair odds · Kosar
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.