30 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1608
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ruzicka
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1533
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+75
H2H28-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.