29 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Marcel Heczko
ELO 1523
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Levicky
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Levicky
ELO 1572
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heczko
Fair odds · Levicky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H42-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.