29 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Josef Medek
ELO 1794
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Medek
ZB
🇨🇿Zdenek Bilek
ELO 1746
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bilek🌟Bilek covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Medek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H34-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.