29 Jul · 18:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kern
ELO 1570
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kern
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1482
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Kern stays under total as favourite 67% (39)
Fair odds · Kern
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+88
H2H3-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)