30 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1588
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1562
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sychra🌟Sychra covers set handicap as underdog 66% (160)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H35-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.