30 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jakub Tazler
ELO 1547
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bayer
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1581
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.83· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H6-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.