30 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1600
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Paril
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1633
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 71% (154)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H9-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.