30 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1420
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pleskot
ELO 1393
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pleskot🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (65)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H26-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.