30 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1723
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mares
LP
🇨🇿Libor Prikasky
ELO 1652
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prikasky🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (128)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+71
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.