31 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1513
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wagner
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1523
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Sobisek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (126)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.