31 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1626
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wawrosz
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1550
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (152)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+76
H2H24-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.