31 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1645
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paril
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1626
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wawrosz🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (184)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H16-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.