31 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1475
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barton
TK
🇨🇿Tibor Kolenic
ELO 1428
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Barton
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.