31 Jul · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1550
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Polasek
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1642
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 66% (185)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+92
H2H32-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-23)