1 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1551
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bayer
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.