1 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1577
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1596
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Louda🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (108)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H79-67
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.