1 Aug · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1497
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Horak
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1519
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Horak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.