1 Aug · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1658
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Postelt
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Kycelt
ELO 1630
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Postelt
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.