1 Aug · 18:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vondrak
ELO 1548
FormWWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wagner
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1551
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Wagner stays under total as favourite 64% (36)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.