1 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1705
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mares
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1658
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Postelt🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (137)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H47-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.