4 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1577
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Holik
ELO 1543
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🌟Holik stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.