4 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1583
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Darin
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Bresky
ELO 1508
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Darin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+75
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.