4 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1592
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Revay
RR
🇨🇿Radomir Revay
ELO 1636
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 66% (190)
Fair odds · Revay
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H13-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.