4 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1358
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Forman
LF
🇨🇿Lubos Forman
ELO 1376
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Forman stays under total as favourite 71% (31)
Fair odds · Forman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.