4 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EG
🇨🇿Evald Gebek
ELO 1533
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gebek
MB
🇨🇿Marek Blejchar
ELO 1488
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gebek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.