3 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1568
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Janata
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1538
FormWWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zmuda🌟Zmuda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (42)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.