5 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1455
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zurek
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1457
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zurek
Fair odds · Zurek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H2-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.