5 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1745
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mares
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1680
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (148)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+65
H2H27-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.