5 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1680
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1660
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Postelt covers set handicap as underdog 70% (87)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H21-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.