5 Aug · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1587
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szotkowski
JS
🇨🇿Jan Szotkowski
ELO 1704
FormWWLLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 70% (158)
Fair odds · Szotkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+117
H2H8-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-7)