5 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1660
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1745
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Postelt🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (148)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+85
H2H47-60
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.