5 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Matyas Kolek
ELO 1468
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolek
ML
🇨🇿Matej Levicky
ELO 1416
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H16-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.