5 Aug · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1195
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Smesny
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1358
FormLWLWL
42%
58%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (48)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~71 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+163
H2H29-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+163)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-13)