5 Aug · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1682
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Szotkowski
JS
🇨🇿Jan Szotkowski
ELO 1704
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cabis🌟Cabis covers set handicap as underdog 67% (104)
Fair odds · Szotkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H11-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.