5 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1597
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ruzicka
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1565
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H29-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.