5 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇨🇿Vlastimil Kolar
ELO 1642
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolar
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1597
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruzicka
Fair odds · Kolar
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.