5 Aug · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Michael Sedlacek
ELO 1720
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sedlacek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Szotkowski
ELO 1704
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szotkowski🌟Szotkowski covers set handicap as underdog 78% (87)
Fair odds · Sedlacek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H50-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.