5 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1358
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hubka
MH
🇨🇿Miloslav Hubka
ELO 1402
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Hubka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.