5 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇨🇿Vaclav Kosar
ELO 1452
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kosar
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1448
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kosar
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 30% · 3.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.