5 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1496
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupa
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1531
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (106)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H55-57
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.