5 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1486
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupa
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1531
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (106)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H34-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.